| How do you keep picking horse racing winners? Over | | | | is to observe the 10% rule: If you've decided to invest |
| the 20 years I have been a professional gambler and | | | | £1,000 in ten tranches of £100 and your |
| racing tipster, that's a question I have constantly been | | | | first horse loses, then stake next time not £100, |
| asked. | | | | but £90, then 10% of what you have left and so |
| The truth is (of course), I don't always win. In fact, I pick | | | | on. This protects your bank in the event of losing runs. |
| more losers than winners. Overall, I get about 40% | | | | Lesson 5 - big runner handicaps |
| winners. I'm not clairvoyant! The real secret is | | | | In Big 16-plus runner handicaps, more than 50% of the |
| something I call value betting. | | | | winners come from the first 4 in the betting. Eliminate |
| Value betting is all about backing horses at the right | | | | the rest and concentrate your study on these fancied |
| odds. Professional gamblers choose the right odds at | | | | horses |
| which to back, rather than letting the bookies choose | | | | Lesson 6 - Each way betting |
| bad odds for them. Even if a horse is a dead cert, I | | | | An each way double on two 5/1 chances doubles |
| won't back it if the odds aren't right. | | | | your money if placed, and pays 35/1 for the win. Find |
| Lesson 1 - bet on 'value' | | | | two solid horses with a good chance of winning and |
| Before you consider a bet first estimate the horse's | | | | an outstanding chance of being placed, and you can |
| winning chance. Then see if you can get value. Value | | | | make a lot. |
| is when the odds on offer are bigger than the winning | | | | Lesson 7 - Watch out for the going |
| chance. Back horses with more favourable odds in | | | | The quickest horses have a daisy cutter running action |
| relation to their probability of winning and although you | | | | where their hooves just skim the ground. It's efficient |
| might lose some days, over the long-term your | | | | and wastes less energy in picking up their legs too high. |
| winners will more than make up for it. | | | | Great on firm ground. But on wet, slushy ground, they |
| Lesson 2 - Betting in proportion | | | | can't pick their feet out of the mud properly, a bit like |
| Checking how much I have in my betting bank, I use | | | | running through the sea at the beach. Result? They |
| this information to decide what the next stake should | | | | lose. |
| be (also dependent on the price of the horse.) | | | | Lesson 8 - Win even if your horses lose |
| There's a world of difference between selecting | | | | When the favourite is heavily odds-on, the 2nd and 3rd |
| horses and actually backing them. The price of a | | | | favourite usually represent tremendous each way |
| horse governs my decision whether or not to bet. If a | | | | value. Find two races like this, have an each way |
| horse is less than the winning chance I have assessed, | | | | double, and you can win even if your horses lose (as |
| I won't back it. On the other hand, if it is bigger than my | | | | long as they are both placed, of course). |
| estimation, I back it. The bigger the price, the more I | | | | Lesson 9 - Don't chase your losses |
| have on the bet. | | | | The professional gambler has to learn to live with |
| Lesson 3 - Betting Ratios | | | | disappointment without allowing it to cloud their |
| The Betting Ratios are also very important. For | | | | decision-making ability. Whenever I have a losing |
| example, if I've assessed a horse's winning chance as | | | | streak, I take a holiday. It's very hard to continue |
| 2/1 and it's 5/2, with a £6,000 Betting Bank the | | | | making the right judgments if you're losing. You tend to |
| bet should be £400. If it's 11/4 it should be | | | | chase your losses. |
| £545. This balancing of stakes is crucial. There's | | | | Lesson 10 - Watch the Novice Chasers |
| nothing worse than backing a winner and realising you | | | | Superior novice hurdlers who won last time out making |
| should have more on. Betting Ratios discipline you to | | | | their seasonal debut in Novice Chases, are usually a |
| stake the correct amount to maximise profits. | | | | good bet (contrary to popular belief). In fact, on |
| Lesson 4 - the 10% rule | | | | average, you win more times than they fall. |
| If you don't use Betting Ratios then a simple technique | | | | |